Event report
CCIFG and IMF 2026 Economic Outlook Briefing
CCIFG and IMF 2026 Economic Outlook Briefing
The Chamber of Commerce and Industry France Ghana (CCIFG), in partnership with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), recently convened its 2026 Economic Outlook Briefing at the French Residence in Cantonments, marking a critical transition point for Ghana’s recovery. On behalf of the Chamber, the Managing Director opened the session by welcoming the distinguished speakers, board of directors, and valued guests to the high-level convening. She emphasized the importance of the partnership with the IMF in organizing the briefing and expressed her pleasure in welcoming the community to discuss the nation's financial trajectory.
Following the welcome, Mr. Guillaume Valence, President of the CCIFG, noted that while the past two years were defined by "stabilization" and meeting IMF benchmarks, the focus for 2026 has shifted toward building "durable resilience". He challenged the audience to look beyond macro-level data and examine how these shifts translate into growth for businesses on the ground, highlighting the briefing's role in bridging the gap between global policy and private-sector reality. He also extended a sincere thank you to the event's sponsors, Guaranty Trust Bank and Advans Ghana Savings and Loans, for their shared commitment to supporting the recovery.
Dr. Adrian Alter, the IMF Resident Representative to Ghana, anchored the discussion with a macroeconomic overview of a region navigating a "long and windy road." He noted that while global inflation is finally descending toward targets, allowing for a projected regional growth rise to 4.0% in 2025, a persistent "funding squeeze" and high borrowing costs remain significant hurdles. For Ghana specifically, Dr. Alter highlighted a significant decline in inflation and a projected GDP growth of 4.4% for 2025, though he cautioned that the outlook remains highly sensitive to gold price volatility and requires continued fiscal discipline to strengthen exchange rate buffers.
Addressing the "hard" risks within the infrastructure landscape, Mr. Evans Asare, Partner at KPMG, provided a detailed report on the energy sector’s transformation amid global volatility. He noted that despite the "Strait of Hormuz" crisis—which has disrupted 20% of the world’s oil supply and pushed crude prices above $100 per barrel—Ghana has made substantial domestic strides. Asare revealed that the renegotiation of Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) saved the nation $250M, while $393M in legacy IPP debts were settled in 2025. He confirmed that the sector has transitioned to a sustainable "pay-as-you-go" model and is targeting a decentralized gas-and-solar grid mix by 2030 to mitigate future commodity shocks.
The briefing reached a sobering climax with a presentation by Mr. Bright Simons, Vice President of IMANI Ghana, who addressed the "Anatomy of a Reckoning" in the cocoa sector. Simons highlighted a staggering 45% deviation between COCOBOD forecasts and actual outturn, which has led to an embedded loss of over $1 billion from rolled-over forward contracts. He criticized "Katanomic" strategies, -policy built on assumptions the data no longer supports, noting that 800,000 farming households remained unpaid through the main crop by March 2026. Simons argued that the future of the sector depends on institutional design that treats "living income" as a commercial imperative and ensures COCOBOD achieves fiscal independence by 2028. The event concluded with a consensus that while the immediate shocks have been navigated, Ghana’s long-term stability now depends on the successful execution of these deep structural reforms.
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